Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b0726c693b80619e74ad2414a9af548a1f0087f863cae68fa790d54aff43f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 39c | 25,501$9,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,884.04 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 77c | 19,536$15,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,407.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 58c | 17,408$10,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,245 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,236$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 58c | 3,898$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.6 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 0c | 3,058$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 8c | 1,059$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 75c | 539.8$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 58c | 424.59$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb658…24e4backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 79c | 378.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 53c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 277$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 202.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…241fbacked No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 149.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 28c | 120.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…589fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 40c | 77.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 70.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…ca9bbacked Yes | 64c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…680ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d13…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 67c | 45.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 58c | 34.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…00f8backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?this page
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 26–27%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 27–28%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by <26%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by >29%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.