Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by >29%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e492f3b3badd8fe3c5ee6b7b29048faba4227b54a264b0837b17839270708ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 37c | 32,863$12,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,140.17 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 70c | 25,164$17,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,574.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 36c | 8,369$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,648$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 39c | 3,910$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 3,690$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.42 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 16c | 3,048$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.29 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…1f82backed Yes | 20c | 2,513$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,104$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 850.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 11c | 827.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 66c | 653.41$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed Yes | 38c | 641.34$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 17c | 555$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 21c | 500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 6c | 309.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…1b78backed Yes | 7c | 303.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 47c | 289.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 274.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 263.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…a692backed Yes | 7c | 254.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…00f8backed Yes | 7c | 230.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…8920backed Yes | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 75c | 214$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…6aaabacked Yes | 9c | 185.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 183.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 49c | 153.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…ebf4backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…7d04backed Yes | 18c | 110.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 39c | 107.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 60c | 98.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 17c | 79.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 75c | 71.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 29c | 68.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…30b8backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed No | 64c | 49.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 47.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed Yes | 63c | 39.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…bedabacked No | 44c | 34.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 31.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed No | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 63c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…ca91backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by >29%?this page
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 26–27%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 27–28%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?Yes won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by <26%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.