Golf · resolved market

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Valspar Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c0aa4ac26b71b3b84bd01a0dbd530037cb6aaccaefb565df4e7119b18ea71d

Rebuilt 42 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,161 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	46c	7,541$3,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,101.03	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	63c	2,059$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.92	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	6c	1,650$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,543.83	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No	58c	1,266$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.53	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	57c	1,083$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.94	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes	11c	982.24$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$876.65	101	23.8%24 W · 77 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	16cpaid	+44%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5eb…b51cbacked Yes	10c	779.63$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$701.67	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.90per pick	10cpaid	+900%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7f…a2eabacked No	63c	563$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes	13c	504.29$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.05	72	4.2%3 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	12c	479.43$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.29	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes	44c	461.7$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.37	55	65.5%36 W · 19 L	+10.8wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+123.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Yes	58c	443.63$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No	44c	406.82$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.48	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes	7c	404.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.08	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc30f…b556backed Yes	50c	399.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.33	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes	5c	310$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.5	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+210.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a56…695bbacked No	54c	233$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.66	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Yes	43c	218.18$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee1d…e134backed Yes	23c	174.58$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.58	25	8%2 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes	28c	172.84$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.87	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked No	41c	166.85$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.47	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked No	41c	166.85$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.47	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5a…2a37backed Yes	33c	150.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.67per pick	33cpaid	+199.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No	45c	142.96$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2018…640abacked Yes	23c	86.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.9	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+198.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed No	41c	83.39$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	68cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed No	41c	82.72$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No	53c	76.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca0…9fa7backed Yes	22c	68.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.7	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.78per pick	22cpaid	+358%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…e58fbacked Yes	34c	57.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.97	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Yes	38c	53.13$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.13	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No	73c	44.82$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	72cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed No	49c	43.32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed No	41c	41.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae3…f80dbacked Yes	32c	38.02$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.68per pick	32cpaid	+216.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed No	29c	36.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+60.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No	66c	25.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed No	69c	16.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Valspar Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event