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Serie A · resolved market

Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,996 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ad…45ccbacked Under79c10,000$7,900 inWon+$2,100.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over19c5,673$1,090 inLost-$1,090.12,06339.6%816 W · 1,247 L-8.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over21c3,214$675 inLost-$674.8833148.6%161 W · 170 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over9c3,075$274 inLost-$273.762,59045.5%1,178 W · 1,412 L+10.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over6c2,879$177 inLost-$177.192043.4%399 W · 521 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over20c2,499$500 inLost-$499.8541046.8%192 W · 218 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over4c1,412$53 inLost-$53.3516838.1%64 W · 104 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over22c1,248$275 inLost-$274.656924.6%17 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec2…3987backed Over2c754.99$18 inLost-$18.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed Over4c563.75$25 inLost-$252965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under79c538.53$424 inWon+$114.741353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over22c443.15$97 inLost-$97.4914249.3%70 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over21c400$84 inLost-$8440549.6%201 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under78c344$268 inWon+$75.684872.9%35 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under78c332.88$260 inWon+$72.888757.5%50 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Under79c300$237 inWon+$631258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Under79c300$237 inWon+$631764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd5…9e49backed Under78c256.41$200 inWon+$56.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over22c250$55 inLost-$5538747.8%185 W · 202 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over22c250$55 inLost-$5550648.6%246 W · 260 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over22c250$55 inLost-$5542647.9%204 W · 222 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over18c200$36 inLost-$369440.4%38 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over22c199.98$44 inLost-$4411127%30 W · 81 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af3…fbe3backed Over23c161$37 inLost-$37.031315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over24c148.55$35 inLost-$355843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Over21c143.05$30 inLost-$30.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over23c102$23 inLost-$23.468940.4%36 W · 53 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b5…4e3dbacked Over23c86.96$20 inLost-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d5…865bbacked Under80c72.05$57 inWon+$14.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ae…5c25backed Over23c65.22$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over21c63$13 inLost-$13.2358939.4%232 W · 357 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Over23c61.7$14 inLost-$14.193050%15 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under79c59.98$47 inWon+$12.98158%47 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee75…f59abacked Over23c51.13$12 inLost-$11.76683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a84…c4fcbacked Over23c51.13$12 inLost-$11.76850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under76c49.97$38 inWon+$11.7417955.3%99 W · 80 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4d…884bbacked Under79c37.97$30 inWon+$7.97540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick75cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked Under78c32.05$25 inWon+$7.052653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53e…fbedbacked Under78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.642365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707a…f78dbacked Under79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02d…9b64backed Under80c25$20 inWon+$53100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Under79c18.99$15 inWon+$3.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed Under79c13.92$11 inWon+$2.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick67cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.