Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75288ba731459bd41f13e5f433314b272f347ec455c6397871c8a29b6a58f756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 1,173$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 561.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 42c | 306.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 290.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 42c | 290.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.71 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 266.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 229.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 191.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 189.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 184.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 178.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 60c | 165.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 162.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 158$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 130.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 122.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 121.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 120.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 119.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 112.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 29c | 111.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 110.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 28c | 110.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 103.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 102$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 101.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 95.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 42c | 88.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 69.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 69.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 63.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 42c | 60.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 64c | 60.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 43c | 57.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 54.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 74c | 45.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 38.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 38.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 33.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 39c | 33.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 30.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 27.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…83f2backed Yes | 45c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 62c | 26.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.