Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c833fdb229e09f2ce85a8ae6389b6437fc4cb7206632c8529f159a2c10a1a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 1c | 1,807$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 42c | 1,645$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.92 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 833.23$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 242.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 203$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 186.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 179.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 57c | 162$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 161.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 153.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 149.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 67c | 118.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 117.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 117.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 116.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked Yes | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 107.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 102.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 61c | 98.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 46c | 95.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 44c | 87.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 57c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 60c | 83.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 47c | 75.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 74.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 66c | 69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 61.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 60.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 53.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 49.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 45.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 39.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 39.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 63c | 39.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c2d5backed No | 62c | 37.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 38c | 37.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 56c | 37.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 31.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 30.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 30.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 47c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 28.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 27.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 59c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 23.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 53c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.