Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will The New Saints FC win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7568fe02d53edade39f1d3d26065d1933906ba2b55a91351d08f91eb6de7d942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 56c | 22,068$12,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,742.36 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 44c | 16,163$7,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,139.01 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 9,013$4,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,426.1 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 49c | 3,025$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.59 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 49c | 2,612$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.94 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,391$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.87 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 46c | 2,284$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.06 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 47c | 2,192$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.46 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked No | 49c | 1,669$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.37 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 49c | 1,351$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 1,159$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.8 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 51c | 999.98$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.99 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 52c | 931.99$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.72 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 46c | 751.11$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.59 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed No | 47c | 597$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.59 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 47c | 479.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 53c | 471.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 44c | 449.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 45c | 419.78$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 45c | 386.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 48c | 373.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 46c | 256.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 51c | 239.84$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 44c | 214.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…bf47backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 48c | 196.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Yes | 51c | 191.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 52c | 186.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 53c | 165$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 53c | 160.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 7c | 158$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 53c | 148.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 48c | 147.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd32…f000backed No | 45c | 124.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked No | 44c | 112.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…511dbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 79.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 57c | 74.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 51c | 69.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 43c | 69.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 62.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aff…0b7dbacked No | 51c | 59.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…d9c7backed No | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed No | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 61c | 44.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 49c | 43.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…522abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…3a06backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 47c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 45c | 28.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 45c | 28.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 47c | 28.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…0aefbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 52c | 24.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…3548backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 51c | 20.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The New Saints FC win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will FC Flora win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.