Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x758135d68c3a3442a3a409712f611189abf039c39300a03f60a36610426212c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 59c | 1,093$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 60c | 850.24$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.3 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 360.72$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 330.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.72 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 61c | 238.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 183.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 67c | 159.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 155.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 134.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 835 | 42.4%354 W · 481 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 119.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 41c | 103.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 32c | 103.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 68c | 101.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…fb8dbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 553 | 36%199 W · 354 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 49c | 91.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 40c | 91.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 91.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 76.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 67.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 43c | 67.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 66.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 61.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 59.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 55c | 50.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 46c | 49.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 46c | 49.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 47.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 23c | 46.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…fdf7backed Yes | 38c | 43.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 53c | 34.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 34.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…e4d5backed Yes | 38c | 31.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 55c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -32.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.