TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Lakers, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,339 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f09…9312backed Magic48c4,159$2,000 inWon+$2,159.089547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers57c3,549$2,030 inLost-$2,029.995,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Magic15c710$105 inWon+$6057852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Lakers39c513.02$200 inLost-$20013346.6%62 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Lakers39c512.5$199 inLost-$199.55044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Lakers54c250$135 inLost-$1352,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Magic45c162.3$73 inWon+$89.37753.2%41 W · 36 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Magic47c105.93$49 inWon+$56.4590357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Magic50c100.4$50 inWon+$50.436248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic28c86.42$24 inWon+$62.221,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Lakers60c83.98$50 inLost-$5013744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers55c47.87$26 inLost-$26.332,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Lakers75c46$34 inLost-$34.31,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Lakers55c45$25 inLost-$24.7562049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e0…776ebacked Magic45c42.2$19 inWon+$23.218353%44 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Lakers55c36$20 inLost-$19.832747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Lakers55c36$20 inLost-$19.827345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Lakers55c36$20 inLost-$19.832947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c40…cd62backed Lakers29c34.68$10 inLost-$10.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…fe55backed Magic44c33.1$15 inWon+$18.531050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Lakers57c22.93$13 inLost-$13.0736247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Magic63c22.79$14 inWon+$8.5110637.7%40 W · 66 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.