NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 118.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb23c2edbbcb012949a11161b0200eb2a6b127220a918d8fbfdc45c6a33f373

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	50c	1,532$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.44	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Under	50c	1,495$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-33%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2155…f351backed Over	56c	267.76$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.76	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	63cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	137	47.4%65 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over	52c	79.39$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.11	969	56.3%546 W · 423 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	56c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.8	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	44c	63.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.95	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under	48c	59.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…0d9abacked Under	50c	41.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over	57c	41.24$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.73	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Under	49c	32.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	241	47.7%115 W · 126 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	52c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68c…c8b1backed Over	43c	27.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.91	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Under	48c	27.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	260	44.6%116 W · 144 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…95e9backed Over	56c	21.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	51c	20.59$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 118.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event