MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a22979249cd72b89d4a2988429e50df842e8e53dd0a721e0787d15160a0339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc28e…96febacked Yes | 66c | 14,863$9,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,093.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 8c | 3,900$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 52c | 1,700$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.74 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed No | 57c | 1,437$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.3 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 10c | 1,370$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 7c | 1,069$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,317%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 7c | 973.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked No | 57c | 855.71$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.82 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 50c | 757.3$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.65 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed No | 2c | 731.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 51c | 719.39$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.89 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 51c | 679.23$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.41 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 19c | 450$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked No | 11c | 400.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 50c | 362.55$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.57 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 57c | 292.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…4527backed No | 56c | 264.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yes | 76c | 150.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 32c | 117.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 56c | 113.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d5…a33bbacked No | 56c | 113.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 44c | 106.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Yes | 47c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed No | 57c | 42.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…dd7bbacked No | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed No | 57c | 33.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked No | 55c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.