NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75e0e06661ea8fe3baf47951852211b4aececa4176f0d97a3a95268881363275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 21,526$10,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,792.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 2,797$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 1,843$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.5 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 47c | 1,432$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.96 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Over | 48c | 1,379$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.08 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 1,021$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.46 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 812.72$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 636.44$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.15 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 498.97$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 51c | 474.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 465.6$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…9cebbacked Over | 47c | 427$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 50c | 398.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 335.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 20c | 310.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 53c | 292.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 163.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 50c | 153.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 140.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 50c | 136.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 133.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 49c | 119.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 104.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Over | 47c | 92.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 79.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 49c | 63.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 51c | 63.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 56.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…839ebacked Over | 51c | 54.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 50.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 26c | 46.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 42.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 47c | 31.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Knicks vs. GrizzliesKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Knicks (-15.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.