NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd461d2f18642ab396b4aaf5767dd28b6a4303c3f740b37f48164c812018f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 7,811$3,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.83 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 6,011$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,065.51 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Under | 51c | 4,997$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.5 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,017$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 1,812$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 1,291$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…306abacked Over | 53c | 458.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 50c | 222.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…030abacked Over | 49c | 214.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 54c | 198.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 54c | 182.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 179.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 51c | 176.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 52c | 168$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 164.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Over | 49c | 151.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 51c | 119.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 119.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Under | 47c | 103.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 99.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 90.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 49c | 88.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Over | 53c | 84.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 49c | 74.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Over | 49c | 66.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 49c | 62.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 53c | 58.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Over | 53c | 58.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 53c | 57.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8f…c01dbacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 49c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 49c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 51c | 24.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…d4a6backed Over | 49c | 22.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Knicks vs. GrizzliesKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Knicks (-15.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.