TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Knicks, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x906f…88b4backed Grizzlies54c9,733$5,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.2822453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Grizzlies55c8,783$4,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.245655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks45c8,119$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.272,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Grizzlies55c7,272$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.3817050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies56c6,618$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.8872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks44c5,740$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks44c4,307$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.724,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks54c4,023$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Grizzlies54c3,333$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.0615850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Grizzlies56c3,222$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.4819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Grizzlies58c2,859$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.6971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Grizzlies54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Grizzlies57c1,880$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.861,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Grizzlies56c1,874$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.6487049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Grizzlies40c1,787$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.1631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Knicks46c1,641$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.9258347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Grizzlies56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.791,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Knicks44c1,414$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.324151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies57c1,335$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.621,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacdf…f80abacked Grizzlies57c1,330$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.944656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Knicks36c1,255$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.151,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies54c1,151$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Knicks43c1,072$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.821,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Knicks43c982$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.261,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Grizzlies43c941.58$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.9318235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies57c921.52$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.626,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Knicks44c871.57$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.521,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies57c676.33$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.552,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies65c643.65$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.282,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77e8…6854backed Knicks43c630$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.95635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Grizzlies53c524.36$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.737751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Grizzlies56c444.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7965349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies54c425.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.954,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Knicks46c420.7$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5220552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies53c417$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0893543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Knicks45c410.34$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.961,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies55c396.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6442845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies57c384.56$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.362,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Grizzlies52c373.54$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.314852.7%78 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Grizzlies57c327.12$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9290650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Knicks44c322$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6856843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Knicks45c315.11$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.65,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grizzlies44c311.89$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.751,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies55c291.9$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Grizzlies53c275.04$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2739552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Grizzlies53c242.95$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.194334.9%15 W · 28 L-7.9wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Knicks44c224.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5916242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Grizzlies46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Knicks43c187.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8164844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Grizzlies38c187.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9921450%107 W · 107 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Grizzlies54c184.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0181349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Grizzlies55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6117944.1%79 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Knicks46c172.25$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.721,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Grizzlies57c170.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4935052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Knicks49c166.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4256447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Knicks44c162.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9729344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks44c159$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.962,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Knicks53c148.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.452,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Knicks44c144.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6214347.6%68 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Knicks43c137.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8555347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Grizzlies57c134.75$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9451647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Knicks44c132.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.472,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies49c130.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.631,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Grizzlies57c130.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1329352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies59c121.37$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.763,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Knicks46c112.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.262,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Knicks44c109.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3210745.8%49 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Knicks43c106.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8360945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Knicks45c102.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9523840.8%97 W · 141 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Grizzlies40c99.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6023246.1%107 W · 125 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Grizzlies56c97.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Knicks45c90.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6191746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Knicks45c83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.353,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Knicks49c81.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9357550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x518e…0913backed Grizzlies52c73.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies43c71.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.941,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Grizzlies57c65.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2242352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Knicks45c64.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0113441%55 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Knicks47c63.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Knicks60c58.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1387744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4999…dea5backed Knicks20c56.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Grizzlies66c50.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9315252.6%80 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Grizzlies50c46.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4237753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Knicks45c44.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1955444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Knicks62c41.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9519360.1%116 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked Grizzlies58c41.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.66346%29 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Knicks52c40.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.795250%26 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Grizzlies64c38.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Knicks59c36.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.581,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Knicks60c36.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5741449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb4…aebebacked Knicks44c32.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8d…1a96backed Knicks44c30.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.449445.7%43 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies49c30.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.343,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Knicks44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.222456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abc…b096backed Grizzlies58c29.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2811243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Knicks66c28.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0237539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbc…f42bbacked Grizzlies55c26.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9413848.6%67 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Grizzlies57c25.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0256454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Grizzlies57c20.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8237853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48dd…f641backed Grizzlies52c20.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.