NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761bc40775c4c6446179b51abcd13d0ea03c88754257e98f0c885f8c8ec64593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Hawks, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Hawks | 56c | 28,211$15,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,784.81 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…26fbbacked Bulls | 44c | 25,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 45c | 6,296$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bulls | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls | 52c | 2,648$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.48 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 49c | 2,175$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…4666backed Hawks | 53c | 1,434$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 51c | 1,261$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Hawks | 54c | 1,068$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.98 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Hawks | 55c | 1,014$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.64 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hawks | 50c | 996$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Hawks | 54c | 944.93$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.26 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Hawks | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls | 53c | 301$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Hawks | 55c | 275$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 51c | 192.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…2713backed Hawks | 41c | 189.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Hawks | 53c | 189.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Hawks | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Bulls | 47c | 150.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…bbc7backed Hawks | 69c | 145.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Hawks | 52c | 132.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Hawks | 53c | 123.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Bulls | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bulls | 46c | 105.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Hawks | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Bulls | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bulls | 52c | 91.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Hawks | 50c | 85.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 52c | 76.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Bulls | 18c | 76.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…918abacked Bulls | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Hawks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Hawks | 54c | 55.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…7df8backed Bulls | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hawks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 52c | 53.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Bulls | 54c | 52.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…2b1ebacked Hawks | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked Bulls | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Hawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Bulls | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bulls | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Bulls | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Bulls | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Bulls | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hawks | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Hawks | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HawksBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.