NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c373f640208f71ab04af0db5aeb240578567aae07af20ef1524a13b6d3e157

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Hawks, Bulls
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,703 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1117…3532backed Hawks	52c	47,890$24,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,902.77	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Bulls	48c	25,000$12,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,000	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+7.5wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Bulls	48c	13,283$6,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,907.15	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Bulls	49c	7,512$3,681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,831.07	175	54.9%96 W · 79 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Bulls	48c	5,421$2,602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,819.02	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hawks	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,650	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bulls	52c	3,860$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860.46	419	54.4%228 W · 191 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	48c	3,270$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,691.58	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3e…949bbacked Bulls	56c	2,902$1,625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,276.85	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls	50c	2,832$1,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,416	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Hawks	44c	2,828$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,244.07	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks	48c	2,616$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.9	726	48.3%351 W · 375 L	+30.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	53c	2,548$1,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,208.46	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	49c	2,180$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.13	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Hawks	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	722	41.4%299 W · 423 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks	53c	1,996$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.25	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls	47c	1,800$846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks	50c	1,663$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.59	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1702…4666backed Hawks	51c	1,039$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Bulls	49c	820$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.2	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Hawks	51c	705.88$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks	50c	612.18$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.9	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Hawks	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Hawks	51c	499.99$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.99	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Hawks	21c	499.53$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.9	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Hawks	52c	438.46$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd643…9811backed Hawks	52c	384.4$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.89	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Hawks	52c	381.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be5…c185backed Hawks	52c	240.38$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Bulls	49c	204.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.1	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Bulls	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Bulls	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe38…f858backed Bulls	56c	179.02$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.02	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+66.1%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Bulls	64c	164.4$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	145	62.8%91 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Bulls	47c	143.91$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.27	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks	45c	142.67$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.59	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hawks	50c	138$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Hawks	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd549…296dbacked Hawks	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks	19c	101.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Hawks	51c	100.59$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Hawks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bulls	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Bulls	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Hawks	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Bulls	50c	90$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	50c	82.51$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.38	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Bulls	64c	77.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.72	96	60.4%58 W · 38 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Hawks	49c	72$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	317	54.6%173 W · 144 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Hawks	49c	72$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	342	54.1%185 W · 157 L	+16.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bulls	48c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Hawks	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…6124backed Bulls	53c	63.7$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.7	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bulls	50c	56.72$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.63	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Hawks	49c	54$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	340	53.8%183 W · 157 L	+16.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks	46c	53.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bulls	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	44c	48.28$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb832…7203backed Hawks	47c	42.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Bulls	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	202	41.1%83 W · 119 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Bulls	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Bulls	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	237	53.6%127 W · 110 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bef…b7c2backed Bulls	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Bulls	48c	39.92$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ff…af12backed Hawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Hawks	52c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Bulls	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Hawks	49c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	271	50.2%136 W · 135 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Hawks	49c	35.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	366	51.4%188 W · 178 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6254…af1abacked Hawks	50c	31.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Hawks	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…9971backed Bulls	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	281	56.2%158 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173a…6610backed Bulls	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event