NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc2367797e9347c28a92b9eb3318ee5d994cc7a3421f242e338911d062688ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Hawks, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 46c | 5,285$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hawks | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 48c | 4,238$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.38 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361e…e9cbbacked Bulls | 52c | 4,126$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…4666backed Bulls | 52c | 3,283$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…0c2cbacked Hawks | 47c | 2,766$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Bulls | 55c | 2,180$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.87 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bulls | 53c | 1,893$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.3 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Hawks | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Hawks | 47c | 1,206$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Bulls | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…8e54backed Hawks | 45c | 888$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 53c | 814.24$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 47c | 607.66$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Bulls | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bulls | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Hawks | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…6c62backed Bulls | 52c | 490.38$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Hawks | 48c | 424.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Hawks | 48c | 423.01$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Bulls | 53c | 402.19$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 75c | 322.54$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…af16backed Bulls | 55c | 305$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Bulls | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa149…9f56backed Bulls | 55c | 298$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Bulls | 53c | 292.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…7e8bbacked Bulls | 55c | 285$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Hawks | 20c | 264.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 47c | 223.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 51c | 195.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks | 49c | 150.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Bulls | 68c | 103.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Hawks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Bulls | 54c | 92.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Hawks | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks | 32c | 77.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Bulls | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…af1abacked Hawks | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bulls | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Bulls | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Bulls | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…3f4cbacked Bulls | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Bulls | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HawksBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.