NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fdf22f3e0dc39a317044258e9caa7873a8a4859fb99a887bb85f53c6be87af

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $153,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $153,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,360 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under	50c	89,442$45,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45,000	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over	51c	60,000$30,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,399.98	200	55%110 W · 90 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	48c	25,312$12,198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,114.59	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	49c	19,642$9,630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,630	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	51c	12,952$6,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,403.52	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	49c	8,213$4,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,188.76	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd612…f2dfbacked Under	50c	5,834$2,911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,911	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Over	52c	4,500$2,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,160	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	4,469$2,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,188.47	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Under	50c	3,356$1,669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,668.66	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over	51c	3,027$1,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,483.23	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over	51c	2,558$1,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.41	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x361e…e9cbbacked Under	49c	2,491$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.78	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	2,408$1,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,204.2	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under	49c	1,953$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	49c	1,531$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	50c	1,500$755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$745	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	47c	1,139$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$598.04	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	51c	1,090$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$534.11	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	52c	1,058$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.69	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	51c	1,048$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.33	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	49c	612$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Over	50c	609$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.5	267	55.8%149 W · 118 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	48c	600$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Over	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under	50c	458.8$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.4	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	48c	299.99$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Under	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Over	51c	217.1$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.38	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	48c	200$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	193	51.8%100 W · 93 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	192$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	49c	191.93$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.05	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	50c	180$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over	51c	135.29$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.29	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Under	49c	98.94$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.48	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Under	51c	95.31$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.61	463	48.4%224 W · 239 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Over	51c	78.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.23	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d14…261dbacked Under	50c	74.49$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Under	50c	54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe490…8e6cbacked Over	52c	40.38$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.38	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Over	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca7…6e6ebacked Over	51c	21.63$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.52	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event