NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa38bfdce98652ba190890f245012fc79298e71c8c532b70827a55c70917c09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 49c | 4,805$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.52 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.88 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 51c | 560$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 43c | 294.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 216$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 198.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 159.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 43c | 122.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 48c | 98.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 60.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed Over | 55c | 38.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…3f4cbacked Over | 55c | 30.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…087bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…b46ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5this page
- Bulls vs. HawksBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.