TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Hurricanes, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,203,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,282,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,016 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x145c…43bcbacked Hurricanes51c402,909$205,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,451.943148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Golden Knights50c180,470$89,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,480.1714057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Hurricanes50c135,415$67,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,707.551338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Golden Knights49c135,000$66,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,8509340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Golden Knights49c90,000$44,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,90013251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Golden Knights59c78,913$46,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,323.75745.6%26 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Golden Knights52c69,514$36,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,488.2930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hurricanes27c62,314$16,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,891.0314538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hurricanes31c56,823$17,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,673.6242552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hurricanes51c55,361$28,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,234.1157453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Golden Knights70c55,296$38,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,596.231266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Golden Knights50c35,676$17,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,010.1141246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Golden Knights49c27,275$13,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,910.2540550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights51c21,000$10,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,289.921,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Golden Knights49c19,411$9,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,853.7514253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Hurricanes48c17,718$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,545.6531546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hurricanes49c17,643$8,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,645.2644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa455…4ebabacked Hurricanes23c15,588$3,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Golden Knights49c14,352$7,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,319.3392848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes48c12,630$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights60c11,233$6,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,442.158841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Golden Knights50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0008240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hurricanes49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Golden Knights49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.994450%22 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights49c9,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5901,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Golden Knights52c8,995$4,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.670547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Golden Knights51c8,412$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.763246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Hurricanes50c8,400$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2005253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…7c91backed Hurricanes49c8,190$4,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,013.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes20c8,188$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.3989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hurricanes49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.9819451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Golden Knights76c7,929$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.3782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Golden Knights49c6,734$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.3452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf638…d5fabacked Golden Knights51c6,620$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93da…12acbacked Golden Knights51c6,570$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,219.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights50c6,271$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,159.6663249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Golden Knights49c6,065$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.0438844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights49c6,060$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.632251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hurricanes50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…af50backed Hurricanes49c4,943$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Golden Knights49c4,730$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.5337847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights70c4,717$3,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.221,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Golden Knights50c4,465$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.120147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Hurricanes50c4,337$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.0315646.2%72 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Golden Knights51c4,078$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.165848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights78c3,959$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.822,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes50c3,530$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.862,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Hurricanes51c3,376$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick48cpaid-49.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Hurricanes18c3,020$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.187839.7%31 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Hurricanes49c3,005$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.4597651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb0…02bfbacked Golden Knights79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Hurricanes50c2,690$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Hurricanes1c2,618$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.931895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Golden Knights50c2,537$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad1d…0f74backed Golden Knights51c2,480$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5a…2ea2backed Hurricanes49c2,480$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Golden Knights51c2,235$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.2869550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hurricanes49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Golden Knights52c2,014$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.281723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick48cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5799…07a4backed Golden Knights50c2,004$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Golden Knights49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02016743.1%72 W · 95 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31a1…7975backed Hurricanes51c1,965$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Golden Knights49c1,807$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.586443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights49c1,797$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.61,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Golden Knights51c1,722$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.882839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Golden Knights49c1,562$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.522955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Golden Knights50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Hurricanes20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hurricanes51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7652416.7%4 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Golden Knights49c1,428$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.5223642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Golden Knights68c1,322$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.459949.5%49 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffd…a1e5backed Hurricanes27c1,300$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Hurricanes26c1,300$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33820751.2%106 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hurricanes48c1,287$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7830447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Golden Knights49c1,250$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64021750.2%109 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3744…7b37backed Golden Knights52c1,235$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc72e…e2fdbacked Golden Knights52c1,188$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Hurricanes26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Golden Knights73c1,050$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.56100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+115.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hurricanes1c1,009$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Hurricanes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Golden Knights51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4905446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Golden Knights50c999.98$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.9954349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Golden Knights50c967.54$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9787447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3357…42fabacked Golden Knights75c900$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Golden Knights50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hurricanes39c799.44$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights69c788.29$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.391,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Hurricanes50c786.56$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.289242.4%39 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hurricanes8c751.59$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.251,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Golden Knights51c718.94$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.621250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b0…4362backed Hurricanes49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e1…6851backed Golden Knights51c700$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Hurricanes3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51016.9%7 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights74c653.31$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.021,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Golden Knights51c649.97$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.491,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Golden Knights77c634$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8228353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9b…1c7cbacked Golden Knights79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.91366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Golden Knights79c608.43$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0112070.8%85 W · 35 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe0a…e7aabacked Golden Knights68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.