Movies · resolved market
Oscars Bingo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777f90d457109c25dc41ab554799ad51616af7d33b43c72b7c6349bf5bf5647d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,590 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 74c | 885.25$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.06 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 54c | 594.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.32 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 57c | 590.02$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 44c | 576.86$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 17c | 486$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 17c | 484$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 17c | 460$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 324.77$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…f17cbacked No | 52c | 287.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed No | 45c | 279$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 23c | 248$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 77c | 248$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 40c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…3999backed Yes | 74c | 199.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked No | 56c | 177.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 36c | 138.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 135.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 75c | 133.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…f6f2backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…fc48backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 91.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa1…daebbacked No | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 46c | 88.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…624fbacked Yes | 65c | 76.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…2ed8backed Yes | 55c | 75.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…e0f1backed Yes | 56c | 53.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…2580backed Yes | 64c | 50.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 54c | 48.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…de8bbacked No | 50c | 40.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 69c | 39.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…1420backed Yes | 49c | 38.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 56c | 37.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 55c | 35.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…9916backed No | 39c | 31.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed No | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…d152backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 45c | 26.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…3a02backed Yes | 63c | 25.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…c76dbacked No | 57c | 25.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 54c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…3efdbacked No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…993dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…34fabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…48c5backed Yes | 56c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +189%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.