NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77cd966f2fe68ff2a38bcac5cce4cc2fd41a08071dea013a2c3bd35f4e9941dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe169…4653backed Over | 53c | 3,153$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.21 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 821.45$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.44 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 742.51$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…2287backed Under | 51c | 695$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 49c | 611.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 18c | 606.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 570.45$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 57c | 526.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 77c | 407.51$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 20c | 347.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 47c | 299.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.98 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Over | 14c | 256.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 244.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 237.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 222.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 12c | 121.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 50c | 84.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…3e95backed Over | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 50c | 72.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 69.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 73c | 60.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…e9f2backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 67c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 49c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Under | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5this page
- Raptors vs. GrizzliesRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-11.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Taylor Hendricks: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.