TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$686,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$783,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85f0…3f67backed Grizzlies12c72,438$8,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,927.914546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Grizzlies6c29,923$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.611,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked Grizzlies12c20,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-79%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9367…f6bebacked Grizzlies7c19,811$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Grizzlies12c17,440$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.411,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies5c15,898$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.881,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Grizzlies5c12,905$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.931,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Grizzlies12c10,186$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.0320744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Grizzlies9c8,800$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.9718151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies12c8,796$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.014,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grizzlies6c8,258$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.151,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Grizzlies11c8,073$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.0124045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Grizzlies12c8,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9720048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Grizzlies13c7,905$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.966126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies6c6,770$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.852,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Grizzlies0c6,550$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.68820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f6…8cecbacked Grizzlies11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Grizzlies6c4,894$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9836023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Grizzlies11c4,518$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.972055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grizzlies13c4,036$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.121,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Grizzlies11c3,442$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.6411235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Grizzlies1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Grizzlies1c2,700$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Grizzlies13c2,499$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Grizzlies11c2,344$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies6c2,270$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.191,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies8c2,085$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.823,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Grizzlies11c2,021$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.161336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Grizzlies7c2,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Grizzlies10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9931046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Grizzlies8c1,819$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.510947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Grizzlies9c1,680$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.620537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4017…46eebacked Grizzlies12c1,452$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.133246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Grizzlies11c1,405$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.581,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Grizzlies11c1,400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15468944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1a…4e20backed Grizzlies1c1,345$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Grizzlies2c1,249$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5226638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies12c1,200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1445,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Grizzlies8c1,181$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.483129%9 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies10c1,177$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.661,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Grizzlies12c1,110$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.217532%24 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Grizzlies13c1,094$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1717532%56 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Grizzlies8c1,027$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.981,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Grizzlies7c999.38$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9436243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies6c977.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.518,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a70…5882backed Grizzlies10c946$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d0…03afbacked Grizzlies7c944.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.095940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Grizzlies11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035129.6%104 W · 247 L+1.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Grizzlies11c860.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6619443.3%84 W · 110 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Grizzlies12c789.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7229635.8%106 W · 190 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…d098backed Grizzlies11c788.83$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.771947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Grizzlies13c786.67$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2723435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Grizzlies7c760.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6218632.3%60 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies11c757.28$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.31,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Grizzlies13c729.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7833837.3%126 W · 212 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Grizzlies6c680.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.281,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies9c668.93$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.52,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x892d…ab96backed Grizzlies13c625.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.322128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1415…7a18backed Grizzlies12c614.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Grizzlies12c599.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.564347.7%307 W · 336 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Grizzlies6c586.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7838751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Grizzlies12c572.83$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7410130.7%31 W · 70 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e59…cc2ebacked Grizzlies5c565.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.292638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Grizzlies5c565.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2913837%51 W · 87 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9da2…7d19backed Grizzlies13c557.31$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.452213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Grizzlies7c520.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7842335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b3…37fdbacked Grizzlies13c510.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Grizzlies6c501.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0615219.7%30 W · 122 L-26.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Grizzlies13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6553939.5%213 W · 326 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed77…bde0backed Grizzlies4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204932.7%16 W · 33 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Grizzlies13c499.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Grizzlies11c497.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7124841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Grizzlies11c487.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6414640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Grizzlies8c480.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.124937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Grizzlies12c476.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1738432.6%125 W · 259 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd9…d3abbacked Grizzlies13c473.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.612846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Grizzlies13c473.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6133344.1%147 W · 186 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdb…a013backed Grizzlies12c465.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb965…01d8backed Grizzlies13c445.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.911752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Grizzlies6c437.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.253554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Grizzlies11c430.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3313544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f87…4a86backed Grizzlies11c430.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.333036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Grizzlies13c421.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6735052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Grizzlies13c421.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6751647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Grizzlies12c408.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9916141.6%67 W · 94 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfebb…09fcbacked Grizzlies12c394.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3611364.6%73 W · 40 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Grizzlies6c393.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5924147.7%115 W · 126 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Grizzlies13c379.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.299545.3%43 W · 52 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Grizzlies8c354.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3448132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf4b…52c0backed Grizzlies4c333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Grizzlies12c312.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5669929.8%208 W · 491 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Grizzlies9c309.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8936949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a5…b220backed Grizzlies12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Grizzlies4c299.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112449.4%23 W · 221 L-27.5wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Grizzlies13c291.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9555316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Grizzlies10c290.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Grizzlies4c288.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.479813.3%13 W · 85 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Grizzlies6c287$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.225448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f7…171fbacked Grizzlies14c284.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.