NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78063a0f7e1291df6218fd6e699f8ad594efcb37437e75f645c946d5d7df006e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Grizzlies | 41c | 2,586$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.45 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 35c | 1,622$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.32 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 58c | 1,577$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Grizzlies | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Raptors | 60c | 980.47$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.92 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…0e61backed Grizzlies | 44c | 771.1$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.28 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Raptors | 64c | 713.26$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.77 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Raptors | 59c | 364.31$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 59c | 332.82$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors | 58c | 292.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…7768backed Grizzlies | 43c | 260.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Raptors | 57c | 223.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…0fc2backed Raptors | 61c | 195.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Grizzlies | 39c | 161.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Raptors | 59c | 126.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Grizzlies | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Grizzlies | 44c | 99.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Raptors | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Raptors | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Raptors | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies | 43c | 73.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…88b9backed Raptors | 63c | 62.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies | 46c | 59.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Raptors | 59c | 52.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Grizzlies | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Raptors | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 37c | 47.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…294fbacked Raptors | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 40c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Raptors | 56c | 45.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Raptors | 56c | 45.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Raptors | 56c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Raptors | 56c | 43.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Raptors | 61c | 41.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Raptors | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 257 | 52.5%135 W · 122 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 39c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Raptors | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Raptors | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…1643backed Raptors | 60c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 39c | 32.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…ea3fbacked Raptors | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Raptors | 56c | 32.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Raptors | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Raptors | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Raptors | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Grizzlies | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors | 76c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Raptors | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 23.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Raptors | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…c307backed Raptors | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Raptors | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-11.5)this page
- Raptors vs. GrizzliesRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Taylor Hendricks: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.