NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63837558739819834761c68fe17cf7d01fd049f1e51d7acaa6dc936270aba78b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 44c | 10,706$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,712.25 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 56c | 5,807$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors | 54c | 4,009$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.97 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Grizzlies | 44c | 1,689$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.34 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 1,596$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.33 | 310 | 46.8%145 W · 165 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Grizzlies | 41c | 1,500$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 205 | 37.1%76 W · 129 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Raptors | 56c | 1,442$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.15 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Raptors | 56c | 1,442$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.15 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 45c | 942.95$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies | 43c | 873.76$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.46 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Raptors | 56c | 869.29$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.49 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 850$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 53c | 803.38$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies | 47c | 708.66$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.07 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Raptors | 56c | 693.69$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.17 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Raptors | 53c | 504.24$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Raptors | 57c | 342.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 337.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Raptors | 56c | 314.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies | 47c | 243.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Raptors | 56c | 243.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors | 51c | 240.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Raptors | 64c | 224.87$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 39c | 212.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors | 52c | 210.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Grizzlies | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Grizzlies | 27c | 189.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Grizzlies | 41c | 176.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Raptors | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Raptors | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…fdb4backed Raptors | 57c | 171.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Grizzlies | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Grizzlies | 44c | 118.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Grizzlies | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors | 62c | 114.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Raptors | 53c | 104.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Grizzlies | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Raptors | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…8094backed Raptors | 53c | 99.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies | 48c | 97.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Raptors | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Grizzlies | 46c | 89.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Raptors | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Raptors | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Raptors | 57c | 83.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Raptors | 57c | 83.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Raptors | 57c | 83.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 135 | 41.5%56 W · 79 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Grizzlies | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Raptors | 59c | 74.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Raptors | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Grizzlies | 44c | 66.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Raptors | 56c | 62.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Raptors | 67c | 58.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 41c | 55.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Grizzlies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 39c | 46.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Raptors | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Raptors | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Raptors | 55c | 38.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Raptors | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 296 | 65.5%194 W · 102 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Raptors | 76c | 30.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Raptors | 64c | 25.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors | 76c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…a4c9backed Raptors | 56c | 22.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)this page
- Raptors vs. GrizzliesRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-11.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Taylor Hendricks: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.