Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e76bf12a876628f0eeef97354121ea9d333710347f4687784a8f602cf4ab3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 803.15$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.91 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 723.22$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 615.87$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 546$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 39c | 514.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 71c | 291.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 251.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.08 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 48c | 237.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 31c | 191.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.66 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 19c | 180$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 177.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 173$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 153.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 74c | 146.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 129$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 40c | 127.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 34c | 115.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 110.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 33c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 66c | 93.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 36c | 92.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 38c | 92.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 29c | 90.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 39c | 89.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 34c | 88.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 72c | 85.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 84.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 83.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 29c | 82.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 72.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 72.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 28c | 70.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 51c | 68.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 67.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 67.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 34c | 67.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 63c | 66.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 16c | 65.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 36c | 64.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 58.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 54.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 28c | 49.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 49.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 35c | 47.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 46.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 64c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 39c | 45.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 43.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 66c | 42.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 29c | 41.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 39.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 75c | 34.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 66c | 34.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 32.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 36c | 32.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…90febacked Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +129%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 73c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 69c | 26.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 26.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 67c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 65c | 24.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 71c | 23.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 19.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 16.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.