Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d09a53e04ce93edc04cdf8ae9ae21064768327679ffc7501be9180c028d8a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 725.57$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 503.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 61c | 457.42$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 396.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 389.32$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 65c | 299.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 293.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 214.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 63c | 206.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 198.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 193$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 177.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 61c | 159.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 148.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 146.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 141$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 127.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 127.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 30c | 126.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 55c | 124.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 52c | 122.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 32c | 121$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 118.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 103.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 64c | 101.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 100.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 32c | 95.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 80.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 63c | 79.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 49c | 78.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 44c | 78.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 77.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 27c | 75.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 57c | 74.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 50c | 73.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 72.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 66c | 68.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 53c | 67.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 42c | 63.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…9d80backed Yes | 27c | 62.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 40c | 59.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed Yes | 33c | 58.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 59c | 56.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed Yes | 28c | 54.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 54.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 40c | 53.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 59c | 50.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 50.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 56c | 48.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 21c | 47.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 41.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 55c | 40.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 61c | 34.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 53c | 30.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 30.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 53c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 45c | 29.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…1154backed Yes | 60c | 27.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 49c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 25.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 59c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 59c | 25.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 48c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 57c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 54c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 63c | 18.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 58c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.