Premier League · resolved market
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783a873b5b78d3c126eba6b09644f2042647c1e1c630fafe83a6fc3c572ead2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 2c | 38,743$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.35 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 4c | 15,014$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.3 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 18c | 15,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.96 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…51c9backed Yes | 36c | 5,378$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,453.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 78c | 2,052$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.42 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 1,579$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.8 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 1c | 1,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 1,056$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.28 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 42c | 1,007$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.99 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…590fbacked No | 69c | 905.61$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.23 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 640.78$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.3 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 375$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 336.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 35c | 291.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 280$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 52c | 179.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 35c | 158.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 155.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 36c | 132.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed Yes | 45c | 128.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 38c | 99.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 65c | 90.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 64c | 79.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 65c | 76.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 66c | 58.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 65c | 46.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 34c | 45.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…4eb1backed Yes | 35c | 41.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 382 | 33.2%127 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 30.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 56c | 27.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 64c | 20.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 59c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 65c | 19.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.