Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7893eeea6c17cd675c8c32f0937e79b5c40bf2c792cf17600d7b22fd6e548c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 1,094$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.7 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 875.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.78 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 714.51$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 43c | 631.89$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.96 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 43c | 631.5$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.11 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 594.89$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 533.87$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 533.54$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 16c | 425.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 352.69$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 307.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 236.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 28c | 222.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 52c | 208.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 22c | 199.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 199$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 186.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 62c | 180.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 178$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 177.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 58c | 174.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 34c | 167$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 158.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 153.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 36c | 148.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 141.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 139.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 134$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 131.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 127$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 124.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 121.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 120.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 117.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 115.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 64c | 113.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 113.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 106.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 96.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 95.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 69c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 78.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 69c | 77.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 33c | 76.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 39c | 75.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 37c | 72.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 62c | 66.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 46c | 66.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 65.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 49c | 63.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 60.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 60.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 74c | 59.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 55c | 55.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 37c | 55.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 53.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 51.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 50.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 63c | 47.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 45.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 49c | 45.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 31c | 45.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 39c | 43.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 41.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 41.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 40c | 41.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 40.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 39.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 36c | 38.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 31c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 44c | 28.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 47c | 26.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.