Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd399b9e20fbdcaa41e4178f95fa2e71ac5dc6554d764adfe0485107e75dc1dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 1,872$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.32 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 1,003$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.97 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 60c | 719.53$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.57 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 612.96$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 8c | 607.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 538.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 511.38$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 485$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 393.29$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 378.83$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 331.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 278$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 265.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 257.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 45c | 217$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 44c | 212$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 51c | 195.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 62c | 188.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 178$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 57c | 174.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 45c | 169.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 155.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 51c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 36c | 139.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 122.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 120.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 119.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 38c | 116.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 115.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 113.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 20c | 108.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 106.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 65c | 106.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 34c | 98.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 96.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 89.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 80.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 80.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 44c | 65.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 62.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 77c | 62.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 61.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 61.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 59.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 37c | 58.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 57.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 56.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 53.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 58c | 51.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 48.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 53c | 48.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 51c | 48.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 47.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 46.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 45.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 40.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 54c | 37.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 53c | 36.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 42c | 35.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 51c | 35.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 35.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 57c | 35.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 34.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 34.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 41c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 63c | 34.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 60c | 33.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 32.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 45c | 30.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 48c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.