Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Jay Clarke vs Federico Arnaboldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78dcc6c1a40827950d4c8d4462536e082518e6e3e0097c980114f67ed6b1e229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jay Clarkeof Jay Clarke, Federico Arnaboldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Federico Arnaboldi | 4c | 16,437$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.77 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Federico Arnaboldi | 5c | 8,356$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Federico Arnaboldi | 3c | 6,616$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 4c | 2,766$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 634 | 40.9%259 W · 375 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Federico Arnaboldi | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federico Arnaboldi | 8c | 1,471$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Jay Clarke | 47c | 1,353$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.18 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Jay Clarke | 79c | 1,112$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.29 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Jay Clarke | 46c | 1,098$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.42 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Federico Arnaboldi | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Jay Clarke | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Federico Arnaboldi | 14c | 597.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Federico Arnaboldi | 54c | 555.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 54c | 552.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.17 | 1,881 | 45.7%860 W · 1,021 L | +51.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Federico Arnaboldi | 24c | 542.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Federico Arnaboldi | 52c | 419$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Jay Clarke | 46c | 411.02$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.02 | 215 | 60.5%130 W · 85 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Federico Arnaboldi | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 50.2%143 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Federico Arnaboldi | 52c | 290.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Federico Arnaboldi | 30c | 280.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 11c | 271.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Federico Arnaboldi | 4c | 265.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 351 | 32.2%113 W · 238 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Federico Arnaboldi | 49c | 225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 54c | 194$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Jay Clarke | 46c | 158.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Federico Arnaboldi | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 20c | 131.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Federico Arnaboldi | 46c | 108.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Jay Clarke | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Jay Clarke | 44c | 95.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jay Clarke | 48c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Federico Arnaboldi | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Jay Clarke | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 24c | 65.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…ecc5backed Federico Arnaboldi | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Federico Arnaboldi | 29c | 52.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 367 | 40.6%149 W · 218 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Federico Arnaboldi | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 21c | 48.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 95 | 27.4%26 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Federico Arnaboldi | 28c | 46.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 283 | 48.4%137 W · 146 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…ca76backed Federico Arnaboldi | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Jay Clarke | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Jay Clarke | 44c | 22.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Jay Clarke | 49c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.