NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f4218be788aceab9a4020c2bf515225644084c04a19f064a3d9fe30b1c93ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 3,783$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.82 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Under | 65c | 2,069$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.35 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 55c | 1,964$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.5 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,747$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,214$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 596.57$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 390.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 5c | 385.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 73c | 274.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 35c | 202.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 17c | 141.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Under | 52c | 38.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bee…97fdbacked Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 30.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5this page
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PelicansSuns won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.