NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234e27fe9e99a60fbe4d5a935fa4fee4031ce4a250c3a293cebc6abf5f191b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $413,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $413,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Suns | 51c | 341,438$175,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,851.7 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Pelicans | 49c | 140,000$68,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,200 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Pelicans | 48c | 123,455$59,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,258.4 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans | 49c | 30,000$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 49c | 25,283$12,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,851.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans | 51c | 21,121$10,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,771.86 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 49c | 17,282$8,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,525.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Suns | 50c | 15,823$7,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,911.51 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 49c | 10,020$4,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans | 5c | 9,990$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Pelicans | 50c | 8,695$4,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,311.75 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 49c | 8,471$4,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185.23 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pelicans | 50c | 5,827$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.31 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 50c | 5,000$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Pelicans | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Pelicans | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pelicans | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 49c | 1,500$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.86 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Pelicans | 50c | 797.8$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.9 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 48c | 580.5$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Suns | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Pelicans | 51c | 466.67$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Pelicans | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Pelicans | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Suns | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Suns | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pelicans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed Pelicans | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 51c | 171.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Pelicans | 49c | 121.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Suns | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed Suns | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pelicans | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Suns | 50c | 49.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed Suns | 51c | 47.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Pelicans | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Suns | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Suns | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Suns | 51c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PelicansSuns won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.