NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85637e319699b4886557cf80b1901497e1b826af24600249ea5f620e651816e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Suns | 55c | 143,833$79,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,724.85 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Pelicans | 45c | 133,333$60,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,999.85 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 54c | 9,898$5,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Pelicans | 46c | 9,580$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Suns | 55c | 3,886$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.75 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Suns | 55c | 3,639$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.86 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 44c | 3,014$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 2,709$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Pelicans | 45c | 2,657$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Suns | 54c | 2,118$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.24 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Pelicans | 45c | 1,860$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 45c | 1,007$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c5…9f50backed Pelicans | 44c | 886$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Pelicans | 45c | 720$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 56c | 585$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Suns | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Suns | 55c | 513.67$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.15 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Suns | 59c | 508.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.99 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Pelicans | 46c | 326.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…e0c1backed Suns | 56c | 310$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…5a2abacked Suns | 56c | 309$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans | 42c | 282.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.74 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 277.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Suns | 56c | 269.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…6c40backed Suns | 56c | 267$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Pelicans | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Suns | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Pelicans | 45c | 213.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…e2c5backed Suns | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Suns | 58c | 181$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Pelicans | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Suns | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Pelicans | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Suns | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Suns | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Suns | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Suns | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Pelicans | 46c | 85.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed Suns | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Pelicans | 47c | 79.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Suns | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Suns | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Pelicans | 47c | 68.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Pelicans | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Suns | 55c | 60.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Suns | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Suns | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Suns | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed Pelicans | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Suns | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Pelicans | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Pelicans | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…fe9fbacked Pelicans | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Pelicans | 46c | 42.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Suns | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Suns | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Suns | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Suns | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Suns | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Suns | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Suns | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…89cabacked Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Suns | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Pelicans | 46c | 31.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Suns | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Pelicans | 43c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Suns | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Suns | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Suns | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked Suns | 56c | 17.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PelicansSuns won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.