NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb38855862a87f12c715caa7bf3f87df83415fa98144a1411de7010edb9e05278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,796$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 4,137$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.17 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 2,384$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 52c | 2,062$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.38 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 1,786$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 1,750$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 1,464$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.27 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,460$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.93 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 52c | 698$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.96 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 573.06$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 452.83$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 56c | 422.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 387.14$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…d25abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 54c | 95.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 32c | 79.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 44c | 74.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 44c | 71.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 63.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 59c | 55.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5this page
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PelicansSuns won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.