TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$362,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons61c79,897$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,897.341,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Liquid28c36,180$9,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,991.9450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Liquid40c30,106$12,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,039.412348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Falcons64c24,550$15,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,725.7115951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdc…4281backed Team Liquid37c24,300$8,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,909.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Team Liquid30c11,800$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57610540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons63c10,285$6,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.3280056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Liquid38c10,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.9913960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid32c9,623$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.7589341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Team Liquid35c9,516$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.5810045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed Team Liquid37c8,219$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid28c7,263$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.331,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Falcons64c5,482$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.0841056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a6…e5aebacked Team Liquid37c5,329$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.063164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Team Falcons65c5,220$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.818551.4%95 W · 90 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Falcons78c5,105$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.0518549.7%92 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Liquid38c4,959$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.4926540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Team Falcons63c4,766$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.1518560.5%112 W · 73 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid38c4,636$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.6956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Falcons63c4,273$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.7250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6729…f17dbacked Team Liquid36c4,050$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4581464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Team Liquid26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid35c3,997$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.6869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid24c3,748$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Falcons63c3,169$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.9822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid36c3,155$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.951,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed Team Liquid33c3,144$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0507439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid38c3,116$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.0260349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Liquid35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05051140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons69c3,000$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.11,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked Team Liquid35c2,719$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.659643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Team Falcons80c2,710$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.8812159.5%72 W · 49 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Liquid36c2,700$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97216746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Team Falcons76c2,640$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.617955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons69c2,619$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.761,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid35c2,603$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.3477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons68c2,500$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid23c2,417$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.522,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid35c2,393$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.5594442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Team Falcons68c2,206$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.8810453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…4f8abacked Team Falcons61c2,021$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.071650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Team Liquid39c2,001$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.391650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Team Liquid1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfae1…fdc1backed Team Liquid11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Liquid37c1,798$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.1853444.4%237 W · 297 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Liquid41c1,701$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.5236343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Liquid35c1,690$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8814136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons64c1,683$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.5561256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Team Falcons62c1,610$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.6937745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Team Liquid15c1,609$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Liquid10c1,600$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15745457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26c6…b937backed Team Liquid35c1,580$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5532560%15 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+66.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons65c1,500$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.7249455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team Liquid37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9818830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Liquid37c1,476$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.5265441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Team Liquid25c1,425$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Liquid18c1,372$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.261,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Team Falcons61c1,371$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.5619456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed Team Liquid37c1,342$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9827…e57cbacked Team Liquid41c1,306$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons64c1,273$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.4771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid36c1,220$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Liquid38c1,213$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7815050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Team Liquid6c1,200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6963032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Liquid21c1,200$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.319338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons64c1,194$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.1996357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Team Falcons71c1,172$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.887350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Falcons62c1,111$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.1831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed Team Liquid36c1,105$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.756342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Team Liquid29c1,044$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Team Liquid3c1,033$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9821155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons68c1,003$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.9689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons68c1,002$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.6468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked Team Liquid38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38024542.4%104 W · 141 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Falcons65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Falcons64c973$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.313544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Falcons67c969.69$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2837146.4%172 W · 199 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Team Falcons63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3820642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons69c907.32$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.611,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed Team Falcons65c853.85$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.8513453.7%72 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x487e…b043backed Team Falcons59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.461258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8f…4a0bbacked Team Liquid35c790$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.55444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Team Falcons64c719.96$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3912949.6%64 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed Team Falcons63c712.2$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5117449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Liquid29c699.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9931444.9%141 W · 173 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons68c695.38$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid28c675.5$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8977258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Team Falcons74c651.77$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8126859%158 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed Team Falcons62c647.52$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5212046.7%56 W · 64 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d0…f30fbacked Team Liquid35c632$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.23447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked Team Falcons65c616.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9220160.2%121 W · 80 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Team Liquid6c533$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9824536.7%90 W · 155 L-14.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons69c532.84$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.721,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Liquid36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18037655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…affdbacked Team Liquid10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506046.7%28 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed Team Falcons61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1958958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.