Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a81d7117076f8c1a8859c722ad92a4cc995cb60195840df3c616a62eff9c9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 15,482$3,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,898.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 74c | 14,456$10,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,758.49 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 59c | 5,292$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 42c | 4,144$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.48 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 2,966$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 1,392$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.58 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 51c | 1,095$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.11 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 72c | 760.67$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 53c | 683.87$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.9 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 603$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 17c | 583.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…4bbcbacked Yes | 28c | 389.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 26c | 379.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 26c | 370.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 67c | 322.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…6cc9backed No | 39c | 314.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 46c | 306.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 60c | 290.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 73c | 265.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5ed9backed Yes | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Yes | 12c | 240.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Yes | 7c | 199.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Yes | 37c | 171$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 10c | 166.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…8976backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 23c | 136.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 74c | 135.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 28c | 123.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 9c | 108.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Yes | 16c | 98.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yes | 64c | 93.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 29c | 93.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 26c | 89.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 14c | 73.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 67.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 26c | 65.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 26c | 65.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…db15backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 70c | 53.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…5bc5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 74c | 41.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 34.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 31.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 73c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…1eb7backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…458bbacked No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.