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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$242,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,939 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed No30c90,000$26,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,699.9911445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes40c24,939$9,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,963.545052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No71c15,273$10,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,823.17648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Yes40c13,787$5,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,270.677447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes53c13,585$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,384.882853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes32c10,529$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,123.813,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Yes14c8,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8806726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No32c6,210$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.022,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes56c4,190$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.2175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes25c3,040$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.195147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9804351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes41c1,919$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.4944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes66c1,816$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes55c1,776$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes15c1,526$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.4610463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes33c1,452$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.6319544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes9c1,229$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.1753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked No29c1,111$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.191952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5905635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No59c838.27$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.43447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.3324050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked No69c762.37$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.82556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes34c735.29$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.2938055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes14c714.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.293339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Yes80c710$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1424461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes34c656.38$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.213537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes42c635.13$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.382661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes24c537.32$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.51827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed No5c501.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.095230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes41c499.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.995940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes41c457.32$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8210728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes73c451$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.026347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No43c424.94$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5656951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes40c375$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No35c368.93$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8613332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes23c350.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.713930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes40c334$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…fc48backed Yes12c310$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.711741.9%49 W · 68 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes42c297.62$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.625851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.121450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes11c274.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.852832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes27c218.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.495259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes40c204.76$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2610040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed Yes79c203.81$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.815166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13215829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf166…b79abacked No60c198.17$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes36c190$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.431560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes72c153.61$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed Yes33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes41c146.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.349937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…4683backed Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes28c142.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.866053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes38c142.11$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes36c136.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.119542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked Yes12c130$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23b…db15backed No63c130$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0501…61ecbacked Yes16c129.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No34c121.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.86966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+63.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes41c120.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.234136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.656645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Yes54c107.18$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.185621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1418840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5913142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8985…2e25backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes76c97.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3722669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ccf…b312backed Yes42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed No43c92.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb531…b230backed Yes34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed No76c83.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.013455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65eb…5918backed No60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb403…eadbbacked Yes80c79.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes27c76.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.595532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No24c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes52c72.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9438151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…947dbacked No15c66.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+129.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…d24cbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1419943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Yes34c56.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+87.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No56c56.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2214756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed No59c55.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.544858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Yes28c55.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.713345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No59c54.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.967268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f59…04cdbacked Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x119f…2c27backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbed…13a9backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+85.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes58c44.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb30…6ffbbacked Yes41c44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9220…4dd9backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick35cpaid+189.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ef…251abacked Yes41c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.012100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed No58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes40c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.211040.9%45 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.