Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7eadfca59357b0545db458b7af78985c81bc1a4075ced648510d887cbfdc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 7c | 686.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 8c | 618.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked No | 79c | 406.78$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.77 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 11c | 322.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 74c | 243.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 72c | 226.92$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 177$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 44c | 169.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 64c | 167.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 167.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 27c | 153$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes | 67c | 148.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 31c | 145$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 35c | 143.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 106.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 32c | 95.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 65.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 58.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed No | 31c | 54.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 41c | 50.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 77c | 39.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…08b4backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 54c | 31.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 65c | 26.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 77c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 14.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.