WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b92083512651893603e3e9cce9aa5e13724f2711237992748a7175a3032c535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6820…1c19backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 60,000$29,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,032.6 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 19,051$9,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,544.26 | 803 | 48.7%391 W · 412 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 16,291$8,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,167.58 | 399 | 50.4%201 W · 198 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 11,859$5,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,898.27 | 1,025 | 47.8%490 W · 535 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Sky | 53c | 4,311$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.64 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +19.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Sky | 51c | 2,759$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.42 | 301 | 54.8%165 W · 136 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 1,794$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.21 | 267 | 46.4%124 W · 143 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 1,358$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.83 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 1,342$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.07 | 404 | 40.6%164 W · 240 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 767$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.77 | 944 | 48.3%456 W · 488 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…6850backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 481.46$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky | 49c | 421.07$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 1,803 | 51.8%934 W · 869 L | +56.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 418$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 316$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 256$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 871 | 48.2%420 W · 451 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 179.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 62c | 111.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,635 | 50.2%820 W · 815 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 101.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 774 | 42.5%329 W · 445 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 632 | 46.8%296 W · 336 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Sky | 40c | 73.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 397 | 50.1%199 W · 198 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 58.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 52.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Chicago Sky | 47c | 50.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 46.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 41.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 34.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 31.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 27.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 913 | 49.3%450 W · 463 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Chicago Sky | 64c | 25.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 189 | 45%85 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)this page
- Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago SkyIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 187.5Over won
- Kelsey Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)Indiana Fever won
- Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 14.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.