WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb47c0898d61d5520d42e8c44d6679009001013019dcdeb16a4cd56e651af784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 5,386$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.96 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 3,111$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.38 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Indiana Fever | 45c | 1,850$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.49 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 1,298$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.57 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 1,230$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 914.95$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.55 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Sky | 56c | 845$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.04 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 714.8$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.65 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…946bbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 653.15$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Indiana Fever | 43c | 592.94$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.97 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 44c | 274$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…0512backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Indiana Fever | 43c | 138.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Chicago Sky | 55c | 138.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 132.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Chicago Sky | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Chicago Sky | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Chicago Sky | 57c | 71.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 51.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 50.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Indiana Fever | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 40.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 30.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Sky | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Chicago Sky | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)this page
- Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago SkyIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 187.5Over won
- Kelsey Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)Indiana Fever won
- Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 14.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.