TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,159 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever49c21,310$10,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,838.9699548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Chicago Sky51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2009245.7%42 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky51c11,799$6,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,054.231,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Chicago Sky52c8,205$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.523956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Sky54c6,868$3,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,742.6624347.7%116 W · 127 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Indiana Fever54c5,045$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,343.3110338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever50c4,022$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.2289349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky50c3,980$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.8478548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever45c3,211$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.6355255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Sky52c2,926$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.6526953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Chicago Sky55c2,546$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.679827.6%27 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever49c2,436$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.437141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Chicago Sky51c2,291$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1711833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Indiana Fever45c2,209$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.9838650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Indiana Fever48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0409650%48 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Indiana Fever49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+44.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Indiana Fever47c1,980$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.5750646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Indiana Fever48c1,967$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.6620947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Chicago Sky47c1,517$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.3311540%46 W · 69 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bf1…b5afbacked Indiana Fever48c1,184$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.785341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Indiana Fever48c1,175$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.8746247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Indiana Fever48c954.19$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.182857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Indiana Fever48c954.19$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.182948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Chicago Sky55c775.45$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2413048.5%63 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Chicago Sky53c703.4$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.545154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7254…5594backed Chicago Sky36c673.41$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Chicago Sky52c636.54$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33128558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Indiana Fever48c572.52$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.71944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever46c522$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0892248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Indiana Fever51c498$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Indiana Fever48c477.08$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.087647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Chicago Sky52c457$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Indiana Fever48c408.16$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2410552.4%55 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Chicago Sky56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Indiana Fever46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16239947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Sky50c299.26$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.139651%49 W · 47 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Sky49c287.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1832150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever48c279.95$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1774942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky49c252.07$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.421,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Indiana Fever47c249.34$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.158438.1%32 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Indiana Fever64c228$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Indiana Fever44c225.45$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2529654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Indiana Fever45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Indiana Fever45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Indiana Fever51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+79.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xccc4…b44abacked Chicago Sky52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Sky45c192$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.432540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Sky47c190.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1464152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Indiana Fever48c189.1$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.335541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9412…730ebacked Chicago Sky55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick59cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17f7…4f7cbacked Indiana Fever44c181.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.631050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Indiana Fever47c181.05$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.481973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Indiana Fever46c173.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.745831%18 W · 40 L-7.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Indiana Fever46c160.66$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.311872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Indiana Fever46c160.66$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Indiana Fever64c150.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.855738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Indiana Fever47c124.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7512650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Indiana Fever48c123.83$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.835836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fca…3487backed Indiana Fever48c123.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.161136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Chicago Sky50c117.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0536454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Chicago Sky52c117$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2210050%50 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Chicago Sky62c108.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.362828.6%8 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-43.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Chicago Sky50c107$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Indiana Fever47c106$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.182040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Chicago Sky49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ede…23e5backed Indiana Fever45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1b…85c8backed Chicago Sky51c99.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4415451.9%80 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Indiana Fever46c99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.463655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Indiana Fever48c98.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.131631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Indiana Fever50c97.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.666254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Indiana Fever51c96.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.794841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Indiana Fever47c89.42$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5219257.3%110 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Sky52c84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6813256.1%74 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Chicago Sky49c84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1623955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Sky53c82.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6937850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd79a…6d72backed Indiana Fever47c80.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1361547%289 W · 326 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe66f…0f3ebacked Indiana Fever48c78.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Indiana Fever46c76.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7613256.8%75 W · 57 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd20c…5031backed Indiana Fever47c71.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.663351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Chicago Sky51c68.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.054148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever64c66.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Chicago Sky56c64.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.139345.2%42 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Chicago Sky52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.8wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-40.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Chicago Sky50c55.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.614148.9%69 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever48c53.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9532948.6%160 W · 169 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed Indiana Fever50c53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Indiana Fever57c52.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.593151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f79…0307backed Indiana Fever49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ad…1014backed Indiana Fever57c47.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.37771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Indiana Fever46c45.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever51c43.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1471245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa250…b806backed Chicago Sky50c42.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Indiana Fever44c41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.962948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Indiana Fever48c38.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.922552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Indiana Fever49c32.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5523746.4%110 W · 127 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Indiana Fever48c30.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.772650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Chicago Sky49c29.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4123644.9%106 W · 130 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Indiana Fever45c29.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1124546.9%115 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe201…b90bbacked Indiana Fever50c28.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.