Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c7ac8eb2a65742ce1a545cdf2964e264748e3597fe8f440acc05435d1733afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 724.36$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 512.84$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.79 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 49c | 499.95$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 422.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 275$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 244$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 218.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 212.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 171.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 151.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 141.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 114.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 108.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 107.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 93.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 89.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 84.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 83.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 78.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 33c | 75.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 48c | 75.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 72c | 70.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 32c | 67.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 32c | 67.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 66.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 63.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 51c | 43.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…e711backed Yes | 34c | 38.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 36.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 34.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 70c | 33.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 44c | 31.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 30.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 27.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 50c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 56c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.