Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cbf0cc7823a2d25a6cf8727e1b3c3b77b5ca2f50a504aa98e9f1f31f4618a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $443,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $389,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0e2…991bbacked Yes | 0c | 249,999$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,554$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…5837backed Yes | 1c | 10,585$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…8a38backed Yes | 1c | 10,585$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…50febacked Yes | 1c | 10,575$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…3bc2backed Yes | 1c | 10,575$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…1ce6backed Yes | 2c | 6,357$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 4,331$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.16 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,853$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…7f0ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,574$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,547$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 1c | 3,426$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…8061backed Yes | 3c | 3,336$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,784$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c60…cf94backed Yes | 1c | 2,780$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3c07backed Yes | 0c | 2,697$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe580…126bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,844$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,797$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,792$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…1019backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 1c | 1,144$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…7bcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…6fa8backed Yes | 1c | 1,093$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 948.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…6c84backed Yes | 1c | 838.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9115…b4d6backed Yes | 3c | 748$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 397.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 343.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.