TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Madison Keys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Madison Keysof Katerina Siniakova, Madison Keys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,877 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Katerina Siniakova8c37,400$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.498,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Katerina Siniakova6c20,000$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.6617850.6%90 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Katerina Siniakova2c10,364$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.01517.8%4 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Katerina Siniakova3c9,247$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.41,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Katerina Siniakova4c6,095$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.851,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Madison Keys78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10027252.9%144 W · 128 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Katerina Siniakova3c3,796$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.884,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Katerina Siniakova4c3,013$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3658021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Madison Keys78c2,910$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.1814162.4%88 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Katerina Siniakova3c2,421$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.224,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Katerina Siniakova9c2,383$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.733,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Katerina Siniakova8c2,274$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.998022.5%18 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Katerina Siniakova3c1,428$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.833,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Katerina Siniakova5c1,064$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014921.5%32 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Katerina Siniakova23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda79…9050backed Katerina Siniakova11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f2…4c29backed Katerina Siniakova3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308326.5%22 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Katerina Siniakova10c951.22$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.364,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked Madison Keys78c945.8$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.82572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Katerina Siniakova5c881.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4247252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3957…35f0backed Madison Keys77c766.23$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2317372.3%125 W · 48 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Katerina Siniakova23c619.98$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.635938.2%137 W · 222 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef6…c784backed Katerina Siniakova6c610.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6117643.8%77 W · 99 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Katerina Siniakova18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1089,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Katerina Siniakova8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.641,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Madison Keys76c547.64$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4310249%50 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Katerina Siniakova22c511.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9827744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8101…663ebacked Katerina Siniakova11c462.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.888731%27 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Katerina Siniakova11c438.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.175,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Katerina Siniakova17c428.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.784,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Katerina Siniakova25c399.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Katerina Siniakova24c366.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.351,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Katerina Siniakova22c340.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9944851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Madison Keys78c320.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5160158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Katerina Siniakova11c318.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515133.8%51 W · 100 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d9…b1b1backed Katerina Siniakova7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550736.1%183 W · 324 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Katerina Siniakova25c200.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Madison Keys75c188$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4796755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Katerina Siniakova11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015534.8%54 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd762…bb9ebacked Katerina Siniakova11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012740.9%52 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…c45cbacked Katerina Siniakova11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012833.6%43 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9538…96f4backed Katerina Siniakova11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012031.7%38 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e87…91cbbacked Katerina Siniakova11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208142%34 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5807…55dfbacked Madison Keys77c168.83$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.831361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Madison Keys75c146.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6738066.3%252 W · 128 L-0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Katerina Siniakova8c146.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.256,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde76…7d17backed Madison Keys77c143.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3312452.4%65 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked Katerina Siniakova24c134.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Madison Keys74c134.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6147058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Katerina Siniakova23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017936.9%66 W · 113 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5429…83c2backed Katerina Siniakova12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520128.4%57 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Katerina Siniakova25c120.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.769545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb994…fad1backed Katerina Siniakova11c116.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.849736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865a…4f00backed Katerina Siniakova11c109.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128226.8%22 W · 60 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b76…cc64backed Katerina Siniakova11c107.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.783636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a9…ed86backed Katerina Siniakova10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107138%27 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aca…f464backed Katerina Siniakova11c97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Katerina Siniakova25c96.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2428442.3%120 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab37…7b61backed Madison Keys78c83.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.336668.2%45 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Madison Keys76c68.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.453,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x113b…84c9backed Madison Keys75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.673080%24 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabdd…a6d0backed Madison Keys75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Katerina Siniakova25c65.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…667dbacked Madison Keys78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.123468.8%161 W · 73 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Madison Keys74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0535164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Katerina Siniakova23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7361152.2%319 W · 292 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b2…5486backed Madison Keys75c42.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.678777%67 W · 20 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa945…59fdbacked Madison Keys78c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.022161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Madison Keys76c39.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7334359.5%204 W · 139 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b6…8d68backed Madison Keys75c32.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15966.1%39 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…f0b2backed Madison Keys78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.05966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f45…f101backed Madison Keys75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6710949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Madison Keys78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6420865.9%137 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Madison Keys78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6430268.9%208 W · 94 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Madison Keys80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.837058.4%216 W · 154 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Madison Keys77c21.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Madison Keys78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.441272.8%300 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb6…ee3fbacked Madison Keys78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick71cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5445…3667backed Madison Keys75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55064%32 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Madison Keys78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.33839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf17a…f7b2backed Madison Keys75c14.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.673953.8%21 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.