TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No58c6,195$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.638,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked Yes68c2,690$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.4410155.4%56 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No63c2,491$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.545,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No30c2,355$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.983,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes40c2,014$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.8730841.2%127 W · 181 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa18…a7b7backed No34c1,977$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Yes26c1,789$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.054637%17 W · 29 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes23c1,693$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2384943.8%372 W · 477 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b1d…820cbacked No72c1,498$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x522d…3913backed Yes48c1,447$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Yes70c1,403$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98210750.5%54 W · 53 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Yes26c1,320$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+30.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No36c1,265$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.251,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No31c1,239$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.3650746.7%237 W · 270 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Yes1c1,012$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x840e…b9edbacked Yes21c999.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked No40c991.47$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.523633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes68c955.57$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.793237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Yes27c951.93$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.762548%12 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes70c906.8$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.438447.6%40 W · 44 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74bb…1759backed Yes17c836.73$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.248831.8%28 W · 60 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No33c829.49$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.762343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd6…e33abacked Yes30c798.33$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x319f…500bbacked Yes63c776.03$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.98660.5%52 W · 34 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f8a…f0b8backed Yes60c699.47$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.683762.2%23 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Yes35c686.43$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.253737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Yes37c665.98$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No62c604.67$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3541256.6%233 W · 179 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No62c580.53$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3847756%267 W · 210 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed No34c559.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.613545.2%61 W · 74 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes70c557.72$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.911546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No67c519.34$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.711,36652.4%716 W · 650 L+51.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes66c465.65$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.922,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Yes34c439.25$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6c…4c44backed Yes67c438.9$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.06757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes25c422.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1144843.8%196 W · 252 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c50…89b6backed Yes34c418.87$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.512462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b3d…7de0backed Yes35c405.62$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.976753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No72c383.44$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.394831.3%15 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed Yes64c372.69$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked Yes70c358.43$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.97128.2%20 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Yes70c349.66$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.53977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Yes66c296.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9213257.6%76 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Yes66c296.83$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61e…a10bbacked No72c292.62$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.322871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57c3…44b8backed Yes68c288.27$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.174242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Yes70c281.31$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.382466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Yes70c270.74$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.537745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No56c253.5$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.281,44456.4%815 W · 629 L+51.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No31c244.08$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.371,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed No44c226.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8557157.8%330 W · 241 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes63c220.8$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.946529.2%19 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-45.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee79…0613backed Yes67c219.8$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0796…8264backed Yes40c205.53$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No77c204.47$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3665058%377 W · 273 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes47c203.3$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.534452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd027…cc86backed Yes25c198.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Yes36c189.52$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.232536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes61c180$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.855155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Yes70c175.36$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.754456.8%25 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Yes60c165.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.552060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Yes60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.62065%13 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes26c160.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.796955.1%38 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes60c155.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2316534.5%57 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1b…09aebacked Yes63c155.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.782572%18 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked No39c151.3$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.424858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2f…4520backed Yes67c146.3$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.021978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No65c140.46$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5136757.5%211 W · 156 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed No65c140.46$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5115956.6%90 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Yes70c140.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b1a…b6f3backed Yes31c139.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Yes28c136.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2722145.7%101 W · 120 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Yes70c136.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3913351.1%68 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No65c125.94$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2747758.1%277 W · 200 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked No73c125.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.315660.7%34 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed No77c123.95$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5638861.3%238 W · 150 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac79…b120backed Yes22c121.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…5375backed Yes62c117.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No31c117.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3621345.1%96 W · 117 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked No72c111.37$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.744959%265 W · 184 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Yes68c108.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5617261%105 W · 67 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes46c105.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.548146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…df06backed Yes66c100.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.624454.5%24 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Yes59c100.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.151637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a6…698cbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223231.3%10 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked No68c99.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9126160.9%159 W · 102 L+20.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No37c99.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7551654.8%283 W · 233 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981b…b8eabacked No33c87.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.469340.9%38 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked No35c86.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.223360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed No38c85.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.097254.2%39 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Yes63c83.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.63953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed No34c81.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.629053.8%156 W · 134 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes44c77.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.912339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Yes63c77.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.891030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd51c…6de3backed Yes69c76.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes63c76.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0510033%33 W · 67 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a4c…1940backed Yes66c74.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.988858%51 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Yes66c74.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.984555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf491…6a0bbacked Yes67c73.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No32c71.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5767548%324 W · 351 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.