CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dde2c12f63e06933b6914461a91ba7d4b6056db03f1760a3f1ed9f375aad636

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sinnersof Sinners, ECSTATIC
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,463 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x503a…860abacked ECSTATIC	6c	3,663$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.18	91	39.6%36 W · 55 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Sinners	65c	1,207$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.83	1,393	65.9%918 W · 475 L	+26.8wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sinners	56c	1,082$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.84	567	32.5%184 W · 383 L	-30.0wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ECSTATIC	49c	1,000$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.14	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed ECSTATIC	50c	906.46$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	219	41.1%90 W · 129 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Sinners	77c	519.48$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.48	275	56.4%155 W · 120 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed ECSTATIC	24c	483.09$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.79	204	40.7%83 W · 121 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ECSTATIC	45c	458$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.6	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sinners	68c	404.16$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.68	6,480	42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L	-79.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…7818backed Sinners	72c	375.48$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.48	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Sinners	58c	346.51$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.53	164	48.2%79 W · 85 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ECSTATIC	30c	284.81$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.72	4,038	48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16c…be8ebacked Sinners	79c	273.32$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.82	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked ECSTATIC	42c	238.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,078	32%345 W · 733 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16fd…b4d3backed Sinners	62c	224.34$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.61	298	40.3%120 W · 178 L	-9.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Sinners	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	328	44.5%146 W · 182 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Sinners	74c	173.86$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.92	1,352	52%703 W · 649 L	+29.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Sinners	55c	163.39$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.89	872	44.8%391 W · 481 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3635…1afdbacked Sinners	59c	150.85$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed ECSTATIC	31c	137.45$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed ECSTATIC	45c	120$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	173	47.4%82 W · 91 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked ECSTATIC	31c	112.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sinners	51c	108.26$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.97	1,714	46.7%801 W · 913 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked ECSTATIC	25c	101.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	216	23.6%51 W · 165 L	-27.4wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Sinners	51c	100.01$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	1,779	59.1%1,052 W · 727 L	+104.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed ECSTATIC	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	380	37.4%142 W · 238 L	-14.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed ECSTATIC	21c	94.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	2,468	24.6%607 W · 1,861 L	-317.8wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Sinners	58c	85$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.65	543	46.2%251 W · 292 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed ECSTATIC	24c	83.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	2,102	16.8%353 W · 1,749 L	-286.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sinners	66c	75.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.54	527	55.8%294 W · 233 L	+23.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d5…8338backed ECSTATIC	26c	73.08$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed ECSTATIC	23c	71.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	1,547	33.9%524 W · 1,023 L	-73.4wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked Sinners	69c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	262	57.6%151 W · 111 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Sinners	40c	70$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	1,146	43.5%499 W · 647 L	-17.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ECSTATIC	33c	61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed ECSTATIC	35c	57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	1,304	26.5%345 W · 959 L	-89.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Sinners	63c	56.97$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.04	378	41.8%158 W · 220 L	-33.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed Sinners	46c	55.56$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	70	34.3%24 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Sinners	51c	55.1$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x51b7…2fc7backed ECSTATIC	45c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	434	42.2%183 W · 251 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ECSTATIC	22c	53.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	1,579	29.7%469 W · 1,110 L	-86.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed Sinners	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	497	66.8%332 W · 165 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Sinners	65c	53.42$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.54	459	56.9%261 W · 198 L	+20.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked ECSTATIC	36c	52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	601	47.4%285 W · 316 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Sinners	57c	50.19$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	916	48.9%448 W · 468 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x80ff…82c2backed ECSTATIC	25c	50.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Sinners	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.33	489	48.7%238 W · 251 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617f…cde5backed Sinners	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.19	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-4.3wins	-0.17per pick	69cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c87…6d0ebacked ECSTATIC	22c	47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f4…ba36backed Sinners	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Sinners	58c	43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.09	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sinners	57c	42.62$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.45	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x680d…05eabacked Sinners	56c	40.65$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.88	40	55%22 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba2b…122fbacked Sinners	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked ECSTATIC	41c	36.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	700	36.1%253 W · 447 L	+18.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Sinners	63c	34.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.06	468	43.4%203 W · 265 L	-11.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56a…0edfbacked Sinners	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed ECSTATIC	46c	34.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	965	43.5%420 W · 545 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…ca17backed Sinners	79c	33.79$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.96	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	66cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x05be…2b45backed ECSTATIC	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed ECSTATIC	41c	28.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	188	37.2%70 W · 118 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6068…1dacbacked Sinners	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.05	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed ECSTATIC	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	187	52.4%98 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Sinners	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.87	410	54.6%224 W · 186 L	+29.4wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked Sinners	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	323	51.4%166 W · 157 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Sinners	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.77	958	49.8%477 W · 481 L	-17.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbda…8bd5backed Sinners	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c80…5845backed Sinners	68c	18.35$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.87	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC - Map 1 WinnerSinners won
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC - Map 2 WinnerSinners won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event