Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2033f466c1171c99931ab8fba664284996ee122015a599a977015c311dbdfb

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,644 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	33c	7,590$2,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,110.8	2,025	43.7%884 W · 1,141 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under	20c	1,752$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,401	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over	58c	1,620$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.59	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-4.9wins	-0.21per pick	47cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Over	44c	1,138$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over	80c	1,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	163	49.1%80 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffe…e4efbacked Over	35c	999.89$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over	79c	760.24$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.59	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over	63c	714.29$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	220	54.1%119 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over	37c	699.14$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.68	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	80c	632.53$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.02	600	41.8%251 W · 349 L	-17.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc35b…6eb2backed Over	80c	600$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	66cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Over	79c	506.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+41%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	59c	505.76$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.83	435	37.9%165 W · 270 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed Over	50c	500.95$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	41c	407.68$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.51	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	42c	404.64$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.69	343	42.3%145 W · 198 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over	74c	400$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…84c5backed Over	79c	370.67$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.83	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Under	65c	353.85$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.85	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	79	41.8%33 W · 46 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Over	39c	299.99$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Under	42c	212$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.96	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	29c	188.14$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.48	1,071	34.8%373 W · 698 L	-15.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under	53c	169.77$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.79	181	60.8%110 W · 71 L	+18.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Over	47c	157$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Over	78c	155.25$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	26c	153.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.85	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…f041backed Over	68c	151.21$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.77	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	19c	133.83$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.4	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	57c	131.58$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Over	77c	129.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-5.8wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Over	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	62cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x337f…d28cbacked Over	80c	126.51$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	39c	125.64$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	+7.5wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5203…5fb9backed Over	80c	125.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f03…dc32backed Over	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6f…06c4backed Under	22c	124$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.72	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e98…ee81backed Over	80c	123.46$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bea…6bf8backed Over	80c	120$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb87…a64bbacked Over	80c	115$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca9…37d8backed Over	79c	100.22$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.17	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over	75c	100$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over	68c	100$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	26	73.1%19 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	19c	90.32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.16	260	47.7%124 W · 136 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over	46c	89.13$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	76	39.5%30 W · 46 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf6…09a8backed Over	80c	85$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81c3…bda2backed Over	80c	85$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d54…43b4backed Over	80c	80$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29c…dc2abacked Under	20c	77.95$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.36	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.46per pick	21cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	202	56.9%115 W · 87 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed52…5b50backed Over	80c	70$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	54c	68.81$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.48	389	53.7%209 W · 180 L	+21.5wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Over	50c	68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	79c	59$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.61	206	67.5%139 W · 67 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	19c	54.35$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.02	272	47.1%128 W · 144 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x125c…f50abacked Over	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Over	64c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed Under	20c	50$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+130.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2463…f5b5backed Over	58c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Over	50c	49.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed Under	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde5e…827abacked Under	36c	41.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.79	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc101…98edbacked Over	60c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Under	52c	38.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.72	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x399c…6191backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…808fbacked Over	80c	34.51$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9f…d2d5backed Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc460…0aa4backed Over	54c	31.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd6…a082backed Over	78c	30.77$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	76cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Over	80c	29.76$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	88	68.2%60 W · 28 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	76cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over	60c	25.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	-5.6wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5this page
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5Under won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 3.5Under won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event