TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Utah State Aggies vs. South Florida Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South Florida Bullsof Utah State Aggies, South Florida Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,187 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Utah State Aggies50c47,720$23,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,893.612,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed South Florida Bulls53c15,555$8,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,346.410045%45 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked South Florida Bulls50c11,040$5,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,568.5912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed South Florida Bulls46c8,200$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4265541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Utah State Aggies48c8,096$3,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,879.371,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed South Florida Bulls65c7,800$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.9911662.1%72 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked South Florida Bulls51c7,116$3,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.4212853.1%68 W · 60 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Utah State Aggies50c6,088$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,074.592,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed South Florida Bulls48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12028539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Utah State Aggies48c5,300$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed South Florida Bulls51c4,721$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.641,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Utah State Aggies47c4,457$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.72,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Utah State Aggies53c4,038$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.938749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed South Florida Bulls47c3,987$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.5955657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed South Florida Bulls54c3,770$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.975,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked South Florida Bulls48c3,489$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.411,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Utah State Aggies48c3,161$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.281,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed South Florida Bulls49c2,566$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.6674649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4d…5408backed Utah State Aggies0c2,504$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Utah State Aggies47c2,267$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.6819057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Utah State Aggies46c2,231$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.2433438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Utah State Aggies52c2,011$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.541241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked South Florida Bulls46c1,881$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.264,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked South Florida Bulls53c1,800$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8467145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed South Florida Bulls65c1,628$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.153,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked South Florida Bulls44c1,572$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.161,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed South Florida Bulls49c1,172$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.729845.9%45 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed South Florida Bulls46c1,140$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.9732337.2%120 W · 203 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed South Florida Bulls53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4709641.7%40 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Utah State Aggies35c906.33$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.2190645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked South Florida Bulls51c890.99$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.962,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Utah State Aggies4c861.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371363.7%5 W · 131 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Utah State Aggies49c852.03$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.1316341.7%68 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked South Florida Bulls48c850.27$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.1413342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed Utah State Aggies55c802$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked South Florida Bulls50c606$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30322640.7%92 W · 134 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed South Florida Bulls54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.565556.4%31 W · 24 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed South Florida Bulls60c516.74$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.662147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed South Florida Bulls47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26521050%105 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked South Florida Bulls49c449.13$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.1552928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed South Florida Bulls48c413.75$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.412,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked South Florida Bulls52c314$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.211,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed South Florida Bulls49c308$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9265825.7%169 W · 489 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Utah State Aggies33c299.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008643%37 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed South Florida Bulls45c280$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15410748.6%52 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Utah State Aggies30c273.82$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0177142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed South Florida Bulls48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…58f8backed South Florida Bulls44c250$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7402…31eabacked Utah State Aggies48c227.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Utah State Aggies32c220$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.654440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed South Florida Bulls46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3950546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30de…849ebacked South Florida Bulls48c214.37$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…bc89backed Utah State Aggies49c205.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed South Florida Bulls45c201.79$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11182048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Utah State Aggies47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410939.4%43 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5e…08adbacked South Florida Bulls48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+285.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed South Florida Bulls50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Utah State Aggies13c192.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352536%9 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…3ef7backed Utah State Aggies52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed South Florida Bulls53c190$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.357448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Utah State Aggies35c183.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5917051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Utah State Aggies53c179.15$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9517650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked South Florida Bulls49c142.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.865543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked South Florida Bulls48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked South Florida Bulls54c129.63$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6311055.5%61 W · 49 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Utah State Aggies33c121.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.013,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed South Florida Bulls53c114.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0510037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked South Florida Bulls44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed South Florida Bulls53c112.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.766357.1%36 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed South Florida Bulls44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…04f6backed Utah State Aggies47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed South Florida Bulls52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4834947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Utah State Aggies32c90.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.841,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked South Florida Bulls45c74.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Utah State Aggies49c74.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1749746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Utah State Aggies52c62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2463551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed South Florida Bulls48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0145644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ed…95bebacked Utah State Aggies52c57.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed South Florida Bulls67c54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.837660.5%46 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca83…4d2bbacked South Florida Bulls52c50.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…467abacked South Florida Bulls51c49.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef95…bc90backed Utah State Aggies52c48.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Utah State Aggies44c47.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8519055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc864…0ffbbacked South Florida Bulls50c41.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Utah State Aggies48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed South Florida Bulls49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf88a…e3b4backed South Florida Bulls50c39.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed South Florida Bulls44c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2821455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f25…ab40backed Utah State Aggies52c35.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Utah State Aggies57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x868d…b425backed South Florida Bulls44c34.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.281861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa209…01ecbacked Utah State Aggies56c34.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21df…fdbcbacked Utah State Aggies52c31.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd684…bb69backed South Florida Bulls49c28.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed68…b870backed South Florida Bulls44c26.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc728…42efbacked Utah State Aggies56c26.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.792369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd92a…31ebbacked Utah State Aggies53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.35per pick44cpaid+93.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed South Florida Bulls50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x824d…9362backed Utah State Aggies51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Utah State Aggies52c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-65.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.