Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea935526fb9f67f4b7f0cb694ca0425cee3f21481de74444e21830cdb9311d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 686.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 22c | 608.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.47 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 571.02$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 70c | 344.73$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.67 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 320$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.93 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 291.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 268.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 222.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 31c | 215.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.03 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 34c | 183.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 176.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 147.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 144.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 140.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 128.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 124.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 107$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 35c | 103.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 97.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 93.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 34c | 91.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 87.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 25c | 84.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 62c | 72.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 26c | 69.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 68.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 67.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 65.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 64.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 59.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 67c | 57.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 32c | 56.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 43.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 67c | 42.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 67c | 39.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 31.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…8fd1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 30.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…23bebacked No | 67c | 22.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 21.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…a805backed No | 65c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…0e11backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.